Chaos theory can make the world very unpredictable. Who knows what the markets will do over the next 12 months? Maybe there are some individuals who are really good at predicting the future.
But I’m not one of them. Nevertheless, it doesn’t hurt to make some predictions just for fun. 😀 Below, not in any particular order, is a list of things that I think might happen this year. It’s all pure speculation of course. 😉
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise to 20,000 points for the first time in history. It will probably happen this week.
- The S&P 500 will only return 5% due to continuously low earnings yield.
- The Nasdaq will see a 11% gain thanks to strong earnings from technology companies like Alphabet and eBay.
- The S&P/TSX Composite index in Canada will gain by 8% for the year thanks to higher commodity prices.
- The FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index will return 3%. The popular iShares ETF, XBB, tracks this bond index.
- Canada GDP grows by 0.9%
- United States GDP grows by 2.0% helped by tax cuts and fiscal stimulus from a Trump administration.
- The United Kingdom’s GDP grows 1.2%.
- Germany’s GDP will crawl along at 0.3%.
- Canada’s population will grow to 36.7 million people by the end of 2017, largely thanks to new immigrants.
- Bank of Canada leaves the benchmark lending rate at 0.50%
- The U.S. Federal Reserve will increase its interest rate only once by 0.25% in the last quarter of the year.
- The Canadian dollar will weaken against the U.S. dollar to end 2017 at $0.74.
- Conservative candidate Francois Fillon will win the 2017 presidential election in France.
- Gold will be worth more at US $1260 by the end of the year.
- CPI inflation in Canada will be 1.3%.
- Inflation in the U.S. will be 1.8%.
- Amazon Go will partner with a grocery chain like Whole Foods so customers can skip the checkout.
- Apple will announce a new hardware product.
- The first self-driving car model to be sold publicly will be announced, along with the year it will be available.
- Canadian real estate prices will be 5% higher compared to 2016 thanks to continuously cheap mortgage rates.
- Someone will try to shoot Donald Trump
- Bitcoin will drop 15% in value this year, against the $USD.
- A new form of cryptocurrency will try to replace bitcoin.
- Higher interest rates in the U.S. will cause its average real estate price to fall 3%.
- The 3 largest Canadian banks will return at least 10% to their shareholders.
- Canadian unemployment rate will fall by 0.2% to 6.7% as Vancouver and Toronto lead the country in job creation.
- U.S. unemployment rate will tick up from 4.7% in December 2016 to 5.2% by the end of this year.
- Oil will end the year higher at US $56 per barrel.
- The Netherlands will hold a referendum to leave the European Union similar to Great Britain last year.
- A large European bank will need a bailout.
Do you have any predictions for this year? It could be anything you want. Whatever flips your pancake! 🙂 Let’s revisit these at the end of 2017.
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Random Useless Fact:
While I don’t have many predictions for 2017 as I’m more of a go-with-the-flow kinda person, my prediction will be that Apple will launch a product just like Amazon Echo or Google Home to further the development of IoT.
Nice prediction. I’m sure the new product will connect with iPhones and iPads if that happens. IoT is really the future. Anyone not invested in technology stocks today is going to miss out big.
Thanks!
It’ll be awesome once every home gets the ability to turn on and off their lights by clapping their hands. Or even being able to re-route your TV to the Restroom Mirror when watching a football game!
Wow, that’s an awesome list of predictions. Very global and comprehensive! I’m hoping you’re wrong about Trump and the FED interest rate increase. I think you’ll be a little low on inflation (US)( and GDP Growth (US). I think you’re right about S&P500 ~4-6%. Thanks for sharing,
Yeah, it really depends on how much Trump opens the tabs on government debt spending. I’m looking forward to see how the markets react to his decisions. 🙂
Oil at $56 by the END of 2017??!? Come on now! Are you trying to get Alberta to hate you? Considering it’s sitting around that now I think we’ll definitely hit that or higher. I’m thinking we’ll see oil in the 60s for most of the year though…mostly just optimism since I work and live in Alberta.
Interesting thoughts on amazon go, I honestly thought that they might try to make a push as a walmart competitor, but I’d say you’re right with them licencing the tech out to those industries instead.
What’s your guess on the car manufacturer that will make the selfdriving anouncement? I’d say Tesla is the front runner but google has been at it longer and could come out of no-where with an announcement like that or that tech could be in development for someone else…should be an exciting year either way!
I think the first manufacturer will be either Tesla or Toyota. Google may have a more sophisticated self-driving car system, but I have reservations about their ability to design a good looking car, lol. As a technology company, maybe they will eventually provide the tech and software while someone else makes the hardware, kind of like their Android platform partnering with smartphone manufacturers before they bought Motorola. I’m just guessing of course.
well, in a manner of speaking Tesla has already sold the first self driving car.
people have paid for the “full self driving” option on hardware v2 cars.
we’re just waiting to find out when they will call the software ready to be activated.
I’m betting on 2019.
[…] supermarket chain, Whole Foods. At the beginning of this year I wrote an article which included a prediction that this would happen. Maybe Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos got the idea from reading my blog. […]