Preparing For Slower Growth

Canada’s trade deficit rose to a disappointing $3.4 billion in August, one of the highest ever recorded. Economists had predicted $2.6 billion, lol. They were way off. Both imports and exports were down, which suggests the entire economy may be in trouble.

It doesn’t help either that Canada’s currency has advanced 7% over the past 6 months, largely due to the 2 interest rate hikes earlier this year. According to insolvency firm MNP, 40% of Canadians fear they will be in financial trouble if rates increase again. And 42% say they are only “$200 or less away from financial insolvency, with little cushion to pay unexpected bills or expenses at the end of the month.” This is troubling news. 😔 Consumers will have to be more careful about how they spend their money going into 2018.

With domestic spending expected to fall, and an extended period of large trade deficits, a slowdown in our growth domestic product (GDP) is inevitable. Canada is essentially buying more stuff than we’re selling, which basically means we’re spending beyond our means and going into debt. Due to these factors, we can expect negative repercussions in the financial markets as well. Slower domestic spending means lower sales for domestic producers and their stock prices.

“Given enough time, investors will realize fewer investment opportunities domestically and begin to invest in foreign stock markets, as prospects in these markets will be much better. This will lower demand in the domestic stock market and cause that market to decline.” ~Investopedia

Economists are anticipating annualized GDP growth of about 2.5% for the third quarter. That sounds too optimistic to me. Given the numbers we have today I would expect a more modest growth rate of 1.6% annualized for Q3, 2017. I guess we shall wait and find out later this year.

It can be difficult to find investments in a slow growing environment. But we can always look for opportunities outside of Canada. 🙂 Afterall, if we search globally, we will likely find more bargains, and probably better bargains, than in any single country. This is why I invested in Germany through Dream Global (DRG.UN) a couple of years ago. Canada’s real estate prices were too expensive, so I looked elsewhere for a bargain, and I found one! Dream Global is a Canadian REIT but conducts most of its business in Germany. Hurra! 😀 If we use the iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF (XRE) as a benchmark for Canadian REITs, then since my purchase in 2015, DRG.UN has outperformed XRE by over 30%. Yay! Property prices in developed countries around the world, including in Germany, have risen a lot over the past 2 year and are no longer cheap. But I believe there are still other undervalued sectors around the world today. 🙂

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Random Useless Fact

Muhammad Ali reportedly went 2 months without sex before a big fight, claiming it made him stronger in the ring.