The S&P 500 hit a record high this week of 4850 points. And it may continue moving even higher. 😀
But this doesn’t mean the overall stock market is doing well. In fact the Russell 2000, which is a more inclusive index of US stocks, is still down about 15% from its all time high back in late 2021.
This is because the technology sector has significantly outperformed lately. Since the S&P 500 is overly exposed to tech stocks, it has done extremely well compared to the rest of the market.
Here’s a graph of the S&P 500 performance by sector. Tech clearly stands out above the rest.
The AI rally has benefited a lot of investors who hold QQQ or other Nasdaq based ETFs.
But now tech stocks appear to be overvalued. Some charts are looking rather precarious. Here’s a 10-year weekly stock chart of Nvidia for example.
I don’t know when this uptrend will end, but I’m pretty sure that when it does there will be a sizeable correction because that seems be how these stocks behave.
Stocks are future looking and as of now these tech stocks are pricing in massive growth going into the next decade.
AI supplier and GPU maker Nvidia has essentially priced in a world that looks like this.
But I don’t believe we’ll live in a technological utopia any time soon.
Companies cannot grow their profits at insane rates every year indefinitely. At some point growth will slow. So when things start to turn, it might be a good idea for tech investors to rotate into some value stocks or alternatives.
I’m not suggesting to get out of tech stocks entirely. But rebalancing a portfolio is typically rewarded over time when it comes to the stock market. 🙂
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Random Useless Fact:
Most people can’t find the third dog in this photo.
New content! How’s the stock portfolio doing?
I agree Nvidia is being priced like it’s the next big thing, but idk. Transformers and AI are still dumb. I think they need a new architecture to take to the next level. Right now I use AI mostly to make professional emails. It easily gets confused. Something like a 4 year old.
Also I couldn’t find the 3rd dog 🙁
Portfolio hasn’t changed much since last year. We took some profits and used the money to buy some new furniture and fix some things around the house. Overall liquid net worth is still around $800K.
About the RUF image, do you see the person standing on the left? If you look closely you will notice it’s not actually a person, but the 3rd dog. It’s just hard to notice because of the black fur. 😀
Do you still trade options?
Yes, I do. I haven’t updated my trades on the blog in awhile.😅